Long-Term Operations for the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Fish and Aquatic Effects Analysis Review Panel

Background

Long-term operations (LTO) of the federal Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP) are needed to meet authorized purposes for flood control and navigation, water supply, fish and wildlife mitigation, protection, restoration and enhancement, and power generation. Their operations also provide recreational and water quality benefits. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the CVP, and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) operates the SWP.

The CVP is a 400-mile, complex, multi-purpose network of dams, reservoirs, canals, power plants, and other facilities. The CVP reduces flood risk for the Central Valley, supplies water to major urban centers in the Sacramento and San Francisco Bay areas, produces electrical power, and offers recreational opportunities. In addition, the project provides water to restore and protect fish and wildlife and to enhance water quality.

The California SWP is a multi-purpose water storage and delivery system that extends more than 705 miles – two-thirds the length of California. A collection of canals, pipelines, reservoirs, and hydroelectric power facilities delivers clean water to 27 million Californians, 750,000 acres of farmland, and businesses throughout our state.

The purpose of this independent scientific expert review of the Draft Fish and Aquatic Effects Analysis (Draft Effects Analysis) is to evaluate its content and improve the science used as the basis of decisions that are important to the people of California and listed species facing extinction.

Reclamation is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), a report mandated by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), to analyze potential modifications to the LTO of the CVP and SWP. The purpose of the Proposed Action considered in the EIS is to continue the operation of the CVP and SWP, for authorized purposes, in a manner that (1) meets requirements under applicable federal and state laws, (2) satisfies Reclamation’s contractual obligations and agreements, and (3) implements authorized CVP fish and wildlife project purposes.

Reclamation reinitiated Endangered Species Act (ESA) Section 7 consultation for the LTO of the CVP and SWP based on anticipated modifications to the Proposed Action that may cause effects to ESA-listed species or designated critical habitats not analyzed in the 2019 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Biological Opinions. The Draft Effects Analysis is a portion of the EIS that is being developed by Reclamation for the LTO of the CVP and SWP. This Draft Effects Analysis includes numerous technical appendices describing the literature, models, and tools to evaluate the effects of different project alternatives on fish and the aquatic environment. The purpose of the analysis is to: (1) systematically evaluate the potential effects and outcomes of the LTO NEPA Alternatives on specific life stages, (2) assess the population-level consequences of LTO NEPA Alternatives on ESA-listed populations, and (3) support a Biological Assessment. The analyses inform a Biological Assessment, which is necessary when a Federal Agency is proposing an action that may affect ESA-listed species. The USFWS and NMFS will then evaluate the Biological Assessment to determine whether the Proposed Action will jeopardize listed species.

The Draft Effects Analysis to be reviewed was developed with additive input from state and federal fishery and water agencies and interested parties through the scoping, initial alternative development, and other opportunities. This input was incorporated into various fish and aquatic analyses presented in the LTO Initial Alternatives Report and NEPA Public Draft Alternatives documents.

An Independent Scientific Review Panel (Panel) will review the Draft Effects Analysis and evaluate the analytical approach used to assess how the LTO of the CVP and SWP affect the aquatic environment and the exposure, response, and risk to select ESA-listed species (individuals and populations), and whether quantitative and qualitative methods and risk assessment tools are used appropriately. The findings and recommendations of the Panel will provide guidance in an effort to improve the Draft Effects Analysis and will be used to inform the final Biological Assessment.

Panel Letter Review

The Delta Science Program coordinates reviews in accordance with its mission to provide the best possible unbiased scientific information to inform water and environmental decision-making. As requested by Reclamation, the review will include a Panel Letter that is developed by the entire panel and will address the Review Questions based on their expertise.

View Reclamation’s request letter to Delta Lead Scientist, Dr. Laurel Larsen.

View Dr. Larsen’s response in PDF format.

View Reclamation’s response letter to Delta Lead Scientist, Dr. Laurel Larsen.

Panel Letter Review Materials

The Draft Effects Analysis to be reviewed includes numerous technical appendices describing the literature, models, and tools to evaluate the effects of different project alternatives on fish and the aquatic environment.

Background documents

• Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft Biological Assessment:
  • Introduction Chapter
  • Environmental Baseline Chapter
  • State and Federal Cooperating Agency Draft LTO Proposed Action Alternative Chapter
  • Seasonal Operations Chapter
• Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft EIS Technical Appendices and Attachments:
  • Appendix I - Old and Middle River Flow Management
    • Attachment I.1 Negative Binomial Salvage Model
    • Attachment I.2 Old Middle River Salvage-Density Model Loss
    • Attachment I.3 Delta Export Zone of Influence Analysis
    • Attachment I.4 Longfin Smelt Salvage Old Middle River Relationship
    • Attachment I.5 Survival, Travel Time, and Routing Simulation Model
    • Attachment I.6 Volumetric Influence Analysis
  • Appendix J - Winter and Spring Pulses and Delta Outflow – Smelt, Chinook Salmon, and Steelhead Migration and Survival
    • Appendix J.1 Longfin Smelt Outflow
    • Appendix J.2 Sturgeon Year Class Index and Delta Outflow
    • Attachment J.3 Zooplankton-Delta Outflow Analysis
  • Appendix K - Summer and Fall Delta Outflow and Habitat
  • Appendix L - Shasta Cold Water Pool Management
    • Attachment L.1 Coldwater Pool Storage and Coldwater Pool Exceedance Analysis
    • Attachment L.2 Sacramento River Water Temperature Analysis
    • Attachment L.3 Egg-to-fry Survival and Temperature-Dependent Mortality
  • Appendix M - Folsom Reservoir Flow and Temperature Management
    • Attachment M.1 American River Redd Dewatering Analysis
    • Attachment M.2 American River Water Temperature Analysis
    • Attachment M.3 American River Weighted Useable Area Analysis
  • Appendix N - New Melones Stepped Release Plan
    • Attachment N.1 Stanislaus River Water Temperature Analysis
  • Appendix O - Tributary Habitat Restoration
    • Attachment O.1 Coldwater Pool Clear Creek Weighted Useable Area Analysis
    • Attachment O.2 Science Integration Team Life Cycle Model Habitat Estimates
    • Attachment O.3 Sacramento River Weighted Useable Area Analysis
  • Appendix P - Delta Habitat

  Review documents

  • Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft Biological Assessment:
    • Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Chapter
    • Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Chapter
    • Steelhead Chapter
    • Green Sturgeon Chapter
    • Delta Smelt Chapter
    • Longfin Smelt Chapter
    • Southern Resident Killer Whale Chapter
  • Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft EIS:
    • Appendix F - Modeling
      • Attachment 1 Detailed Documentation on Updating CalSim Inputs
      • Section 1-1 Modeling Methodology
      • Section 1-2 Callout Tables
      • Section 1-3 CalSim3 Contracts
      • Attachment 1-1 Climate Change
      • Attachment 1-2 Modeled Representation
      • Attachment 1-3 Model Updates
      • Attachment 2 Summary of Recalibration Efforts
      • Attachment 2-1 CalSim3 Storage and Elevation
      • Attachment 2-2 CalSim3 Flow
      • Attachment 2-3 CalSim3 Diversion
      • Attachment 2-5 DSM2 Salinity
      • Attachment 2-6 DSM2 X2
      • Attachment 2-7 DSM2 Chloride
      • Attachment 2-11 HEC5Q
      • Attachment X Delta Life Cycle Model with Entrainment
      • Attachment F Maunder and Deriso in R Model
      • Attachment F.1 Maunder and Deriso Revised Model
      • Attachment F.2 CVPIA Winter and Spring-run Life Cycle Model
      • Attachment F.3 CVPIA Winter-Run Life Cycle Model
      • Attachment F.4 CVPIA Spring-Run Life Cycle Model
      • Attachment F.5 Delta Smelt Life Cycle Model with Entrainment

  Supplemental Material

  • 2022 Initial Alternatives Report
  • Reinitiation of Consultation on the Coordinated Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project (2019 Final Biological Assessment):
    • Chapter 2 – Status of Aquatic and Terrestrial Species and Designated Critical Habitat
    • Chapter 4 – Proposed Action
  • Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft EIS:
    • Alternatives Chapter
    • Appendix B - Water Operations and Ecosystem Analyses
    • Appendix C - Species Spatial-Temporal Domains
    • Appendix D - Seasonal Operations Deconstruction
    • Appendix E - Exploratory Modeling
    • Appendix G - Specific Facility and Water Operations Deconstruction
    • Appendix H - Conservation Measure Deconstruction

  Final Panel Report

  • Final Report
  • Transmittal Letter from Dr. Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Delta Lead Scientist, to Dr. David Mooney

  Charge to the Independent Review Panel

  The Charge to the independent review panel provides the direction, context, and timeline for the review. The Charge includes orientation and focus for the review effort, support materials to be considered, and specific questions for the panel to address during the review process.

  View the Charge in PDF format.

  Review Panel Members

  Henriette (Yetta) Jager, Ph.D. (Panel Chair)

  Distinguished Scientist, Quantus

  Dr. Jager is a Distinguished scientist and owner of Quantus. Her modeling research seeks to understand interactions between climate change, renewable energy, and biodiversity. Her team's models have been used to quantify the effects of flow regulation, fish passage, hatchery operation, and harvest on fish populations in the Western US, including California. In the Snake River basin, Dr. Jager has 18 years of experience modeling population responses of fall Chinook salmon and white sturgeon to reconnection options. In addition to running Quantus, Dr. Jager is a Distinguished Scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and holds a joint faculty appointment with the University of Tennessee. She is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Fisheries Society (AFS). She continues to serve as an officer of the Water Quality Section of AFS, on the editorial boards of several journals, and on the Leadership Team of ORNL’s Climate Change Science Institute.

  Kenneth Rose, Ph.D. (Lead Author)

  France-Merrick Professor in Sustainable Ecosystem Restoration, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES)

  Dr. Rose received his M.S. and Ph.D. in Fisheries from the University of Washington. Prior to coming to UMCES, Dr. Rose was a professor and associate dean in the College of the Coast and Environment at Louisiana State University and started his career as a research staff member at ORNL. His research centers on using mathematical and computer simulation modeling to predict and better understand fish population and food web dynamics in estuaries, lakes, reservoirs, and oceans. He has been a member of multiple steering and advisory committees providing scientific guidance and oversight, including for the National Science Foundation, Delta Science Program, United States GLOBEC Program, US Army Corps of Engineers, and the Chesapeake Bay Program. Dr. Rose has also served as a member of multiple National Academy of Sciences Committees, including Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta, Evaluating the Effectiveness of NOAA’s Fisheries Stock Rebuilding Plans, and Effective Monitoring to Evaluate Ecological Restoration in the Gulf of Mexico. Dr. Rose was awarded the Award of Excellence (for lifetime achievement) in 2014 and the Oscar E. Sette Award for Outstanding Marine Fishery Biologist in 2020 from the AFS.

  Nancy Monsen, Ph.D.

  Hydrodynamic Modeler, Sole Proprietorship

  Dr. Monsen’s research has focused on multi-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay for the last twenty years. Her Ph.D. research was based on the TRIM3D hydrodynamic model and more recently she worked on Stanford’s SUNTANS hydrodynamic model. She also has consulting experience with the DELFT3d hydrodynamic model. Dr. Monsen joined Stanford University in August 2011, having worked previously with Philip Williams & Associates, Ltd. (now ESA PWA) and the U.S. Geological Survey. Funding for her Stanford research ended in August 2014, but she continued as a visiting scholar at Stanford until August 2015. As a visiting scholar, she continued writing papers and assisting Ph.D. candidates and post-doctoral researchers in the Environmental Fluid Mechanics Laboratory. She has been on several science review panels, including the Independent Review of the Draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan Effects Analysis (2014), the State of the Science Workshop on Fish Predation on Central Valley Salmonids in the Bay-Delta Watershed (2013), the Independent Review Expert Science Panel of the Collaborative Adaptive Management Team Proposed Investigations on Understanding Population Effects and Factors that Affect Entrainment of Delta Smelt at the State Water Project and Central Valley Project (2014), and the Calculation of Net Delta Outflow Review (2016). At the beginning of 2017, Dr. Monsen was the lead author on the CA WaterFix Aquatic Science Peer Reviews Phase 2a and Phase 2b. She served on the annual independent science review panels for the Long-term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Biological Opinions in 2014, 2015, and 2017. She also served on the National Marine Fisheries Service 2019 Independent Review of the Coordinated Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. Dr. Monsen earned her doctorate in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University.

  Zhoajun Bai, Ph.D.

  Professor of Computer Science and Mathematics, University of California, Davis

  Dr. Bai is a distinguished professor in the Department of Computer Science and Department of Mathematics at UC Davis, and a faculty computer scientist in the Scalable Solver Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. His main research interests include numerical simulation algorithm design and analysis, mathematical software engineering and applications in computational science and engineering, and data science. He has participated in a number of synergistic projects, such as the development of high-performance computing linear algebra library (LAPACK), algorithmic improvement and performance tuning of the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) by the California Department of Water Resources, and the machine learning toolkit for salinity modeling of the Delta.

  Dr. Bai obtained his Ph.D. from Fudan University, China, and completed a postdoctoral fellowship from Courant Institute, New York University. He is an Editor-in-Chief of ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software and serves on editorial boards of numerous professional journals in his research fields. He is also a fellow of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  Emily Howe, Ph.D.

  Estuarine and Aquatic Ecologist, The Nature Conservancy. Following water from snowcaps to whitecaps.

  Dr. Howe is an aquatic and estuarine ecologist at The Nature Conservancy of Washington. She holds a Ph.D. from the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at the University of Washington, with a focus on estuarine restoration and food web ecology in tidally influenced ecosystems. Dr. Howe’s work integrates across ecosystem boundaries, investigating how landscape configuration and management shape cross-boundary relationships for food webs, organisms, and ecosystem processes. She is currently working at the nexus of stormwater pollution, green infrastructure, climate change, and freshwater and marine restoration ecology.